COMPAS recidivism risk score

entry · p2026-09-06-068 · validated

We obtained the risk scores assigned to more than 7,000 people arrested in Broward County, Florida, in 2013 and 2014

tech: compas
passes the definition as: an actuarial recidivism model fit to historical arrest and questionnaire data
from: 2013
region: US
domain: agency
side: loss
people: 7,000 defendants (2016-05-23)
effect: 44.9 percent (2016-05-23) — black defendants who did not reoffend but were labelled higher risk, against 23.5% of white defendants
reversible: no
who holds the switch: owner:Northpointe (Equivant) and the courts using it
attribution: named
source kind: secondary
the statistic: ProPublica scored more than 7,000 people arrested in Broward County, Florida in 2013–2014: among those who did not go on to reoffend, 44.9% of black defendants were labelled higher risk against 23.5% of white defendants.
source: https://www.propublica.org/article/machine-bias-risk-assessments-in-criminal-sentencing
proposed by: researcher (opus), brief 2026-09-06, era-2012-2019
received: 2026-09-06T09:39:39-04:00
harvest report: impacts/harvest/2026-09-06-era-2012-2019.md

Rulings, in order

2026-09-06T09:39:47-04:00 · validatorpass — quote found on the fetched page (exact match; HTTP 200 text/html; charset=UTF-8)
2026-09-06T09:59:36-04:00 · sessionseverity — liberty decisions informed by a model with thin recourse

The proposal as it arrived (JSON)

{
 "id": "p2026-09-06-068",
 "received": "2026-09-06T09:39:39-04:00",
 "proposer": "researcher (opus), brief 2026-09-06, era-2012-2019",
 "kind": "entry",
 "sha": "666de6e80f31eb7f",
 "data": {
  "kind": "entry",
  "tech": "compas",
  "tech_name": "COMPAS recidivism risk score",
  "definition": "an actuarial recidivism model fit to historical arrest and questionnaire data",
  "from": "2013",
  "region": "US",
  "domain": "agency",
  "side": "loss",
  "people": {
   "n": 7000,
   "unit": "defendants",
   "date": "2016-05-23"
  },
  "effect": {
   "n": 44.9,
   "unit": "percent",
   "date": "2016-05-23",
   "what": "black defendants who did not reoffend but were labelled higher risk, against 23.5% of white defendants"
  },
  "reversible": false,
  "switch": "owner:Northpointe (Equivant) and the courts using it",
  "statistic": "ProPublica scored more than 7,000 people arrested in Broward County, Florida in 2013–2014: among those who did not go on to reoffend, 44.9% of black defendants were labelled higher risk against 23.5% of white defendants.",
  "source": "https://www.propublica.org/article/machine-bias-risk-assessments-in-criminal-sentencing",
  "quote": "We obtained the risk scores assigned to more than 7,000 people arrested in Broward County, Florida, in 2013 and 2014",
  "attribution": "named",
  "source_kind": "secondary"
 },
 "from_file": "impacts/harvest/2026-09-06-era-2012-2019.md"
}