← The impacts · AItopiaOrAImageddon?

entry · p2026-09-06-110 · unverified

Epic Sepsis Model

The ESM did not identify 1709 patients with sepsis (67%)
tech
epic-sepsis-model
passes the definition as
a penalized logistic regression fit to Epic customers' historical electronic health record data
from
2021-06-21
region
US
domain
health
side
loss
people
27,697 patients (38,455 hospitalizations) in the validation cohort (2021-06)
effect
1,709 patients with sepsis missed (2021-06) — the model failed to identify 67% of sepsis patients while alerting on 18% of all hospitalizations
reversible
yes
who holds the switch
owner:Epic Systems and the deploying hospital
attribution
named
source kind
primary
the statistic
Wong et al., JAMA Internal Medicine, June 2021: in 27,697 patients with 38,455 hospitalizations at Michigan Medicine, the ESM had AUC 0.63 and 33% sensitivity at the vendor-recommended threshold, missing 1,709 of 2,552 sepsis patients and firing on 18% of hospitalizations. The model was 'currently in use at hundreds of hospitals throughout the country'.
source
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2781307
proposed by
researcher (opus), brief 2026-09-06, era-2020-2023
received
2026-09-06T09:39:39-04:00
harvest report
impacts/harvest/2026-09-06-era-2020-2023.md

Rulings, in order

  1. 2026-09-06T09:39:47-04:00 · validatorunverified — fetch failed: HTTP 403 text/html; charset=UTF-8
  2. 2026-09-06T09:59:36-04:00 · sessionseverity — sepsis missed by the alert: injury-grade harm
  3. 2026-09-06T10:00:50-04:00 · sessionseverity — sepsis missed by the alert; the count is the 1,709 patients missed, not the cohort
The proposal as it arrived (JSON)
{
 "id": "p2026-09-06-110",
 "received": "2026-09-06T09:39:39-04:00",
 "proposer": "researcher (opus), brief 2026-09-06, era-2020-2023",
 "kind": "entry",
 "sha": "18aa759e60cdbbc8",
 "data": {
  "kind": "entry",
  "tech": "epic-sepsis-model",
  "tech_name": "Epic Sepsis Model",
  "definition": "a penalized logistic regression fit to Epic customers' historical electronic health record data",
  "from": "2021-06-21",
  "region": "US",
  "domain": "health",
  "side": "loss",
  "people": {
   "n": 27697,
   "unit": "patients (38,455 hospitalizations) in the validation cohort",
   "date": "2021-06"
  },
  "effect": {
   "n": 1709,
   "unit": "patients with sepsis missed",
   "date": "2021-06",
   "what": "the model failed to identify 67% of sepsis patients while alerting on 18% of all hospitalizations"
  },
  "reversible": true,
  "switch": "owner:Epic Systems and the deploying hospital",
  "statistic": "Wong et al., JAMA Internal Medicine, June 2021: in 27,697 patients with 38,455 hospitalizations at Michigan Medicine, the ESM had AUC 0.63 and 33% sensitivity at the vendor-recommended threshold, missing 1,709 of 2,552 sepsis patients and firing on 18% of hospitalizations. The model was 'currently in use at hundreds of hospitals throughout the country'.",
  "source": "https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2781307",
  "quote": "The ESM did not identify 1709 patients with sepsis (67%)",
  "attribution": "named",
  "source_kind": "primary"
 },
 "from_file": "impacts/harvest/2026-09-06-era-2020-2023.md"
}