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entry · p2026-09-06-222 · validated

M-Shwari algorithmic credit scoring (Safaricom / CBA, Kenya)

One in 5 Kenyan adults (4.5 million) are active M-Shwari customers
tech
mshwari-credit-scoring
passes the definition as
a credit score fit to a customer's Safaricom airtime, data and M-PESA usage history, which sets whether they may borrow and how much
from
2012-11
region
other:Kenya
domain
access
side
benefit
people
4,500,000 active M-Shwari customers (one in five Kenyan adults) (2015-04)
effect
20,600,000 loans (2015-04) — 20.6 million loans totalling $277 million at an average of $15 to 2.8 million unique borrowers, most with no formal credit history and no collateral; account opening under 30 seconds
reversible
yes
who holds the switch
owner:Safaricom and NCBA (then CBA)
attribution
named
source kind
secondary
the statistic
By April 2015 one in five Kenyan adults (4.5 million) were active M-Shwari customers and over 10 million accounts had been opened; CBA had disbursed 20.6 million loans totalling $277 million to 2.8 million unique borrowers, average loan $15, disbursing 50,000 loans a day. CBA uses an algorithm on Safaricom service usage to assign credit limits.
source
https://www.cgap.org/blog/top-10-things-to-know-about-m-shwari
proposed by
researcher (opus), brief 2026-09-06 second harvest, china-india-africa-latam
received
2026-09-06T10:20:12-04:00
harvest report
impacts/harvest/2026-09-06-china-india-africa-latam.md

Rulings, in order

  1. 2026-09-06T10:21:26-04:00 · validatorpass — quote found on the fetched page (exact match; HTTP 200 text/html; charset=utf-8)
  2. 2026-09-06T10:21:26-04:00 · sessionseverity — credit where none existed for 4.5 million adults, most with no formal history; the NBER study measures households 6.3 points less likely to forgo expenses after a shock
The proposal as it arrived (JSON)
{
 "id": "p2026-09-06-222",
 "received": "2026-09-06T10:20:12-04:00",
 "proposer": "researcher (opus), brief 2026-09-06 second harvest, china-india-africa-latam",
 "kind": "entry",
 "sha": "2ff184751fa58344",
 "data": {
  "kind": "entry",
  "tech": "mshwari-credit-scoring",
  "tech_name": "M-Shwari algorithmic credit scoring (Safaricom / CBA, Kenya)",
  "definition": "a credit score fit to a customer's Safaricom airtime, data and M-PESA usage history, which sets whether they may borrow and how much",
  "from": "2012-11",
  "region": "other:Kenya",
  "domain": "access",
  "side": "benefit",
  "people": {
   "n": 4500000,
   "unit": "active M-Shwari customers (one in five Kenyan adults)",
   "date": "2015-04"
  },
  "effect": {
   "n": 20600000,
   "unit": "loans",
   "date": "2015-04",
   "what": "20.6 million loans totalling $277 million at an average of $15 to 2.8 million unique borrowers, most with no formal credit history and no collateral; account opening under 30 seconds"
  },
  "reversible": true,
  "switch": "owner:Safaricom and NCBA (then CBA)",
  "statistic": "By April 2015 one in five Kenyan adults (4.5 million) were active M-Shwari customers and over 10 million accounts had been opened; CBA had disbursed 20.6 million loans totalling $277 million to 2.8 million unique borrowers, average loan $15, disbursing 50,000 loans a day. CBA uses an algorithm on Safaricom service usage to assign credit limits.",
  "source": "https://www.cgap.org/blog/top-10-things-to-know-about-m-shwari",
  "quote": "One in 5 Kenyan adults (4.5 million) are active M-Shwari customers",
  "attribution": "named",
  "source_kind": "secondary"
 },
 "from_file": "impacts/harvest/2026-09-06-china-india-africa-latam.md"
}