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candidate · p2026-09-06-295 · not-found

Deaths avoided, or people actually alerted, attributable to a learned weather or flood model

set aside as
NOT FOUND
the researcher's note
Deaths avoided, or people actually alerted, attributable to a learned weather or flood model. Google publishes coverage (700 million, 100 countries, 11 Nov 2024) and the Nature paper publishes skill (0 to 5 days of lead time); neither publishes a count of people who received a warning or a casualty difference. ECMWF AIFS, GraphCast, NOAA and Met Office uses are the same shape — member states and grid scores, no people. The filed flood entry is therefore reach-times-accuracy, not lives, and says so.
proposed by
researcher (opus), brief 2026-09-06, severe-benefits
received
2026-09-06T17:40:15-04:00
harvest report
impacts/harvest/2026-09-06-severe-benefits.md

Rulings, in order

  1. 2026-09-06T17:40:15-04:00 · researchernot-found — Deaths avoided, or people actually alerted, attributable to a learned weather or flood model. Google publishes coverage (700 million, 100 countries, 11 Nov 2024) and the Nature paper publishes skill (0 to 5 days of lead time); neither publishes a count of people who received a warning or a casualty difference. ECMWF AIFS, GraphCast, NOAA and Met Office uses are the same shape — member states and grid scores, no people. The filed flood entry is therefore reach-times-accuracy, not lives, and says so.
The proposal as it arrived (JSON)
{
 "id": "p2026-09-06-295",
 "received": "2026-09-06T17:40:15-04:00",
 "proposer": "researcher (opus), brief 2026-09-06, severe-benefits",
 "kind": "candidate",
 "sha": "9ce7382b0d5d7a0f",
 "data": {
  "name": "Deaths avoided, or people actually alerted, attributable to a learned weather or flood model",
  "note": "Deaths avoided, or people actually alerted, attributable to a learned weather or flood model. Google publishes coverage (700 million, 100 countries, 11 Nov 2024) and the Nature paper publishes skill (0 to 5 days of lead time); neither publishes a count of people who received a warning or a casualty difference. ECMWF AIFS, GraphCast, NOAA and Met Office uses are the same shape — member states and grid scores, no people. The filed flood entry is therefore reach-times-accuracy, not lives, and says so.",
  "list": "NOT FOUND"
 },
 "from_file": "impacts/harvest/2026-09-06-severe-benefits.md"
}